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Bitwise isn’t naive. This filing didn’t come out of nowhere. VanEck submitted a similar ETF application for AVAX back in March. Grayscale wants to convert its Avalanche Trust into a public product as well. So Bitwise is jumping into a queue that’s already moving. Their edge? Speed. If regulators shift stance and open the gate, they want to be the first name through.
That’s important to keep in mind. A lot of people saw the headline and assumed this means AVAX is getting listed next week. It’s not. The SEC process takes time — sometimes over a year — and most filings never make it through. The main reason? Classification. If the SEC considers AVAX a security, this ETF can’t go live. Period.
So far, the SEC hasn’t said anything publicly about how it sees Avalanche. There’s no no-action letter, no clarity, no green light. Just silence. And in this space, silence usually means delay.
The token hasn’t led the market in over a year. DeFi activity on Avalanche dropped off hard after the 2021–2022 cycle. Many protocols left. Subnet usage fell flat. Volume dried up.
But behind the scenes, things have been building again. The Avalanche Foundation has reportedly been raising up to $1 billion across two U.S.-based vehicles to buy AVAX directly. That’s not speculation — it was reported by the Financial Times in early September. The structure looks legal. The timeline is unknown.
The ETF filing and the Foundation’s raise aren’t officially linked, but come within two weeks of each other. Feels coordinated. Maybe it is, maybe it isn’t — doesn’t matter. The point is that something institutional is starting to form around AVAX again.
| Aspect | Notes |
|---|---|
| Avalanche Launch Year | 2020 — positioned as an alternative to Ethereum |
| Current Market Cap (Est.) | ~$11–12 billion (subject to volatility) |
| Previous ETF Attempts | VanEck (March 2025), Grayscale (August 2025) |
| SEC Altcoin ETF Approvals | None as of now — only BTC spot ETFs approved |
| Main Legal Risk | SEC may classify AVAX as a security, which blocks approval |
| Other Institutional Moves | Avalanche Foundation raising up to $1B via U.S. structures |
| Bitwise’s Strategy | File early, be first in line if SEC opens door beyond BTC/ETH |
| AVAX Price Reaction | +30% after filing; broke above $30 short-term |
| On-Chain Recovery | Modest: TVL rising slowly, DEX volume up slightly |
| Next Milestone | SEC response — comment letter or silence (both meaningful) |
AVAX jumped 30% after the filing — back above $30 for the first time in months. That was predictable. Headlines move price. But now the chart’s on its own. If there’s no follow-through, it fades like every other pump.
On-chain data isn’t terrible, but it’s not great either. TVL has stabilized. DEX volume has climbed slightly above $2 billion. Subnet activity is inconsistent. If this ETF news is going to matter long-term, the protocol has to actually benefit — more users, more projects, more activity that lasts longer than 48 hours.
Otherwise, it’s just traders recycling attention.
If the SEC signs off — and that’s a big if — the impact is simple: AVAX becomes accessible through regulated brokers. No MetaMask, no centralized exchanges, no learning curve. That means:
– Advisors can allocate AVAX to retail portfolios
– Funds can treat it as a tracked asset with an ISIN
– Institutions can include it in crypto baskets legally
It doesn’t change Avalanche itself. But it changes who’s allowed to hold it.
That alone would be a shift.
For now, there’s nothing more to read into this than what it is:
A clean ETF filing. A strong price reaction. And a token trying to re-enter the conversation.
Nothing is approved. Nothing is guaranteed. And nobody in D.C. has said a word yet.
That’s where we are.
